What is merely the co-main event at Who’s Number One: Gordon Ryan Vs Matheus Diniz could be a marquee matchup in any other context.

Craig Jones and Roberto Jimenez could give us one of the most exciting matches we will see all year. Both competitors are willing to scramble to create openings. And both have proven that when they find an opening, they will capitalize on it.

Jones has an 82-percent submission rate on his victories, while Jimenez, who is still in his rookie year as a black belt, has finished his opponents in 73-percent of his wins.

With two guys as sharp and explosive as Craig and Roberto, this match is sure to be a non-stop battle. But who has the best chance at winning, and how?

Can Roberto Get On Craig’s Back?

Roberto Jimenez is among the best in the world at taking the back, and he can do it from anywhere. In stand-up exchanges, he’ll look to perform a duck under and then spin his opponent until he has access to jump for back control. From the top, he uses a variety of maneuvers to force his opponent to turn and then dive for the back. From his closed guard, his primary method is to drag his opponent’s arm across his body and shimmy behind them. 

When he gets behind his opponent, he knows how to turn up the intensity and relentlessly look to finish.

Watch: Roberto Jimenez vs John Combs at Third Coast Grappling: Kumite III

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If Roberto is able to find Craig’s back, he may be able to identify a weakness. Two of Craig’s three submission losses have come via choke from the back. And Craig has had some of his biggest challenges in EBI overtime periods when his opponent begins the round with back control. Although one of the matches had a controversial ending, Craig’s most recent two matches resulted in EBI overtime submission losses to Mason Fowler.

If Craig’s back defense is his largest vulnerability, he has made up for it by making it nearly impossible to get behind him.

Watch: Craig Jones vs Matheus Diniz at ADCC 2019

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In the entire FloGrappling archives, only two opponents have successfully earned back control on Jones: Keenan Cornelius and Kaynan Duarte. Even when Craig seems to give his back away to his opponent, he is adroit in using his Granby Roll defense to recover guard.

Jones will put Roberto’s back-taking skills to the test in this matchup. If he’s successful, we could see a rare submission victory over Craig Jones.

Will Craig’s Leg Lock Pedigree Prove Too Much?

Roberto Jimenez has been on an absolute tear on the Third Coast Grappling: Kumite series this year. But his Achilles heel (sorry, I couldn’t help myself) has been his leg lock defense. One of Roberto’s two submission losses this year was via heel hook.

Watch: Roberto Jimenez vs Pedro Marinho at JitzKings

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Roberto has demonstrated resilience in deep leg entanglements against both Tye and Kade Ruotolo recently, but neither of them has the leg locking resume of Craig Jones.

Although Craig has a well-rounded game, he fits the definition of a leg locker. Fifty-three-percent of his submission victories have come via leg lock. If Craig is able to pull Roberto into one of the positions that the Ruotolos did, it could be bad news for Roberto.

Even if Craig is unable to finish a leg lock, he may be able to utilize an entanglement to set up his offense. He often uses leg attacks to create back exposure; and he’s as dangerous as his counterpart from the back. The rear naked choke is Craig’s most utilized submission other than leg locks.

Watch: Craig Jones vs Leandro Lo at ADCC 2017

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While Roberto may be in danger if Craig establishes a leg entanglement, it’s not the end game. To reiterate: Roberto can take the back from anywhere. He may be willing to leave his legs open if he believes he can find back control in exchange.

Watch: Roberto Jimenez vs Kade Ruotolo at Third Coast Grappling: Kumite V

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Wild Cards: Arm Locks and Flying Triangles

Let’s not forget how unpredictable each of these guys can be. While each of their A-games are obvious, what other techniques they have in their arsenal may be a surprise. Both men have flying triangle victories, and both have secondary systems which come into play when their first routes fail.

For Roberto, it’s often armbars and triangles, but he also has a nasty kimura. And when Craig’s leg attack system meets opposition, he will frequently try to attack the back or set up a triangle of his own.

Since these two have trained together at the blue basement at Renzo Gracie Academy, they will have some insight about what to expect. So we may get to see some adaptive strategies from both Craig and Roberto, and it could be something we’re not anticipating.