Analysis: Celso & Vagner Promise The Most Brutal Match at KASAI

Pure raiz / no-nutella, jiu-jitsu will be on display in this battle of veteran grapples.

Jun 25, 2019 by Chase Smith

Analysis: Celso & Vagner Promise The Most Brutal Match at KASAI

The bout between Vagner Rocha and Celso Venicius presents a duel of two old-school, hard-nosed competitors. Pure raiz, no nutella jiu-jitsu at its finest.

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The bout between Vagner Rocha and Celso Venicius presents a duel of two old-school, hard-nosed competitors. Pure raiz, no nutella jiu-jitsu at its finest.

Like the Super Series event back in February, this is a super fight event: all matches will be ten minutes under KASAI Rules (points, heel hooks Legal, no advantages) with a Golden Score overtime period.

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Let's dive into the details of these two phenomenal athletes to whet the palate for their upcoming bout.

KASAI Records

Vagner Rocha (5 KASAI matches – 2 wins, 2 losses, 1 draws)
Celso Vinicius (4 KASAI matches – 1 win, 1 loss, 2 draws)

Rocha vs Celso– The Key Ingredient: Forward Pressure

Smacking collar ties, head under the chin, hands in the face, and pressure, pressure, pressure – this is what we can expect from Celso and Vagner.

Celso's Best Weapon: The Guillotine from Hell

Celso Venicius' keys to victory revolve around wrestling – perhaps more specifically, counter-wrestling.

He is a master at using an opponent's takedown attempt to slam on a guillotine– he uses the sprawl to initiate his devastating series of front headlock attacks.

Celso has used this simple but effective gameplan to wrestle his way to success on some of the biggest stages in grappling, including KASAI and ADCC. He punched his ticket to the final at inaugural KASAI Pro when he lifted Enrico Cocco completely off the ground by his neck until he was unconscious.

And though he wasn't able to earn the victory, Celso's masterful use of counter-wrestling was on full display in the ADCC 2017 match with eventual 77kg Champ JT Torres, where he utilized his guillotine / front-headlock attacks to very nearly pass the guard and win the match.

If there's a lone criticism of Celso's game, is that it's a little one-dimensional. He relies almost exclusively on capitalizing on an opponents mistake instead of forcing the action. However, a cautious game plan has its benefits and it's practically impossible to score on Celsinho, putting the onus on Vagner to open things up...

Vagner Rocha: Swiss Army Knife of Brutality

Vagner is one of the most feared lightweight grapplers on the planet – and it's not for any particular set of techniques (though he's got the technique in spades). It is his mentality that strikes fear into the hearts of his opponents.

Vagner's greatest strength is that he mentally and physically punishes his opponents, and his key to victory will be getting Celso out of his comfort zone.

Counter-fighting relies almost exclusively on timing, and if Vagner is able to disrupt Celso's rhythm he greatly increases his odds of landing a successful attack.

There are some practical elements that Vagner presents that also match him up with Celso nicely.

Unlike JT Torres in the above GIF, who has a wrestling style more akin to a college folkstyle pedigree, Vagner's standup reflects his extensive background in MMA. His posture is more upright, and his preference is to hang off the head with heavy collar ties, changing attacks with arm drags and footsweeps; when it comes to takedowns it's unlikely to see Vagner's knees hit the ground to avert the threat of the guillotine.

Should Vagner get the match to the ground and remain on top, his passing is some of the best in the game, and if he is forced to play guard, he is equally skilled at finishing the fight with a leglock as he sweeps to top (though a sweep against someone with a base like Celso is a near-impossible task).

One Man's Pick

If the match is won in regulation, either by points or submission, it will be Vagner Rocha getting his hand raised.

Why?

The Fight Sports / VRMMA athlete's wrestling is designed to avoid the guillotine attack, and Celsinho's entire game is built upon success with that technique. Where Vagner has multiple modes of attack, and is equally comfortable with all of them. If things aren't going Vagner's way early, he can change his approach, while Celso is committed to a single strategy.

Golden score between these two is exceptionally difficult to call – Vagner's game is more point friendly, but if he isn't able to outscore Celsinho in regulation, it's hard to imagine him getting it done quickly in golden score: Celso's entire skillset is predicated on his god-tier base, making him this author's favorite should it go to overtime.