Tezos WNO 18: Meregali vs. Marinho Presented by Fat Tire

Betting Analysis For Tezos WNO 18: Meregali vs Marinho

Betting lines are out for the grappling superfight card. Who did the gambling experts favor? Is there money to be made?

May 16, 2023 by Joe Gilpin

Betting Analysis For Tezos WNO 18: Meregali vs Marinho

The Tezos WNO 18: Meregali vs Marinho card is approaching fast this Thursday evening in Oklahoma City and betting lines have been released for the card through BetOnline.ag. Let’s take a look at those, what they mean for the matches, and detail a few lines to keep an eye on.

Watch Tezo WNO 18: Meregali vs Marinho presented by Fat Tire on May 18, LIVE on FloGrappling

Tezos WNO 18: Meregali vs Marinho presented by Fat Tire

Nicholas Meregali -450 vs Pedro Marinho +325

Over 10min -155

Under 10min +120

Rafael Lovato Jr. -255 vs Elder Cruz +215

Over 10min -275

Under 10min +230

Tubby Alequin -170 vs Alex Enriquez +140

Over 10min -325

Under 10min +275

Jacob Couch +230 vs Izaak Michell -275

Over 10min -215

Under 10min +180

Dante Leon -205 vs Ruan Alvarenga +170

Over 10min -325

Under 10min +275

William Tackett -155 vs Francisco Lo + 120

Over 10min +115

Under 10min -150

Austin Oranday -130 vs Troy Russell +100

Over 10min +195

Under 10min -240

Davis Asare -350 vs Nick Heflin +275

Over 10min +200

Under 10min -245

If you are new to gambling, the numbers here are units you have to bet to win back a certain amount. A negative number is the favorite, or more likely, outcome and you will need to bet that amount to win back $100. So, if you took Nicholas Meregali to win in the main event, you’d need to bet $450 to win $100. The positive number indicates the underdog, or less favored, outcome and you win that much per $100 bet - meaning a $100 bet on Pedro Marinho would win you $325 if he gets his hand raised in any way. The over/under numbers are the same, and correspond to a match going to a decision or finish (submission, DQ, etc). You can ‘parlay’ bets as well, adding them together to get more reward if everything you bet comes to pass.

What you are looking for when you bet on an event isn’t always what you expect to happen, and this article is not full of predictions. Instead, we will be highlighting a few areas where we think the outcome of the bet is more likely than what the odds say - giving us some value on any potential return on the gamble.

Starting in the main event, Nicholas Meregali has every right to be the reasonably heavy -450 favorite given his success on top the last few years. Pedro Marinho has scored surprising upsets against elite fighters like Craig Jones and Giancarlo Bodoni, so the +325 is appealing, but the best value in the main event is on the under 10mins. Nicholas Meregali takes finishing opponents as fundamental to his performances, which we saw in his return to form at 2023 Pan Ams, so the best bet here is to parlay a Nicholas victory with a Nicholas finish.

In the co-main event, there is heavy value in the underdog Elder Cruz. He stands at +215, but has a lot of advantages coming into the match - particularly youth and speed. Rafael Lovato is fresh off of a semifinals run at the last ADCC, a run through the masters divisions at Brasileiros, and is the right favorite here, but it’s hard not to like Cruz, with an extensive wrestling base, as a better pick than what the odds currently reflect.

-155 William Tackett and +120 Francisco Lo are considered very evenly matched coming into their main card bout this Thursday, and for good reason - they both have had similar success in their young careers and we expect a back and forth fight. With that, even though both men are good finishers, the even level of the fight may end in scorecards. Parlay the +115 Over 10mins with your pick to win the match and enjoy a fun scrap.

Enjoy the matches this Thursday and as always, please remember to bet responsibly.