Why Adele vs Jasmine At WNO 29 May Come Down To This One Thing
Why Adele vs Jasmine At WNO 29 May Come Down To This One Thing
We take a look at some of the strategies and positions to watch when Adele Fornarino rematches Jasmine Rocha at WNO 29
At WNO 29 on July 25th, Australia's Adele Fornarino will face Jasmine Rocha in a rematch of their 2024 matchup from the ADCC World Championships. Adele won by submission that day and would go on to blaze her way to double gold in her weight and the absolute. Now, they will rematch in a high stakes bout in Rocha's hometown of Miami, Florida.
Get your tickets here for WNO 29 in Miami, FL on July 25th!
There are a lot of reasons why this matchup could look very different to that first one. We are going to take a look at that bout, break down how Adele was able to earn that win, and then why WNO 29 is a whole new game.
The First Match
Adele and Jasmine met at ADCC 2024 in the -55kg semifinals, the first match of day two and it didn't take long for Fornarino to secure the win. Adele uses a great strategy here of transitioning into upper body locks from what's a traditional leg lock heavy position. It was the start of the most impressive ADCC single day performance probably ever and she started it off in style.
Both sat to double pull and early on Adele was trying to thread in underhooks - instead of aggressively pummeling for leg entanglements. As she sat up to pummel upper body, she forces Jasmine to roll to her back and uses that opportunity to Rau drag her way into an underhook. With some impressive dexterity, she weaves her other leg around the body, clears the guard, and transitions into a deep armbar.
What did we learn? We learned Adele is one of the game's best submission hunters, or at least had it reinforced for us. Adele has proven that she hunts upper body attacks as well as anyone, and even in a time when the game is very focused on leg locking she is one of the best at mixing in those arm locks to great effect (for example, her very next match against Bia Basilio in the finals).
The Rematch
So how could things look in the rematch? Adele's early submission win is very impressive but against an opponent the quality of Jasmine, it seems unlikely that we'll get another sixty second match (especially in Rocha's hometown of Miami). Why could this match look so different? How could things look? Let's break it down.
Why Weight Class Is A Major Factor Here
To me, this is the hidden element in the rematch that makes this match so different in my mind from their first. Their first match was at -55kg, which is 121.25lbs. This rematch is going to be at 135lbs. Those 13lbs is a huge swing and it's a swing towards Rocha.
While the cut down certainly isn't fun, Adele is capable of making 115lbs (and even holds the WNO strawweight title). Jasmine, on the other hand, usually competes up whenever possible and recently had to be hospitalized for a short time due to medical concerns while cutting down to 125lbs - 4lbs above where she was at ADCC. That was at 132lbs and I don't know how long Jasmine will be effectively able to make 125lbs or -55kg. For example, I could see her moving up and being very effective at -65kg at the next ADCC Worlds.
I'd imagine Adele is really motivated to get in this kind of match right now as well. Not only is this her chance to get a very quality win against a world class opponent, this is a chance for her to compete up in weight again as she prepares for CJI 2. There, Adele will be in the $100,000 four woman bracket where she will be taking on larger and more physically powerful forces like Ana Carolina Vieira and Helena Crevar. She needs reps against bigger people, at higher weights, to better acclimate herself to that kind of game.
Adele has proven in the past that she has no issue moving up in weight and being able to beat the best in the world - but a bigger, stronger Jasmine Rocha is a genuine threat to her here.
Leg Lock Danger Both Ways
Fun fact about these two, they hold the two fastest submissions in the women's divisions in WNO history. Jasmine walks in with the fastest finish in WNO women's bantamweight history (at WNO 23 against Emily Ferreira) and Adele's lightning quick sub against Amanda Alequin stands as the fastest ever in any division. No surprise, both got it done by leg lock (in fact, both with an Aoki lock). Factor this in with their quick match at ADCC and you'll sense a pattern - don't blink with these two on the mats. They are elite leg lockers and given their history of success it's realistically two of the best women leg lockers ever in one match.
Who has the edge in leg lock positions? If you go by the numbers, while Adele holds an edge in overall submission rate (a staggering 82% of her wins are by finish) it is Jasmine who wins more of her matches by leg lock. Leg locks account for 20% of Adele's victories overall while Jasmine has a 25% rate. Rocha does, however, hold the lone leg lock submission loss between the two - a 2023 heel hook against Helena.
What If A Jiu-Jitsu Match Breaks Out?
What happens if it doesn't turn into a shoot out from double pull? What if someone tries to play on top or even if they both want to wrestle? What happens then?
Both have a strong closed guard where they are active in hunting armbars and other submission locks. While both would have a great opportunity to finish if they get there, I would especially say that the bigger Rocha has an advantage if she's able to lock up a closed guard. When they open up their guards, Adele tends to play from a knee shield where she can hunt overhooks and legs. Jasmine by contrast will favor more butterfly guards and half butterfly, allowing for easier transitions into X guard and wrestle ups.
Once they are on top, both also really like that knee cut. They do approach it differently, though. Rocha is far more heavy on the pressure, often using her head low to help drive in. Adele on the other hand is more of a pummeler, looking to weave in underhooks and scoop legs for a more precise movement. Both are very effective, but considering the strength of their guards we don't often see either choose to willingly play on top.
If this comes down to wrestling, I would favor Jasmine. She's bigger, likely stronger, and has shown flashes of effective jiu-jitsu wrestling against talented black belts like Alex Enriquez and Ana Rodrigues. This is also a complicating factor in any wrestle ups that Adele may want, as getting stuck underneath in a sprawl would be a dangerous spot to be in.
WNO 29: Rocha vs Dale Full Card
- Middleweight Bout - Kit Dale vs Vagner Rocha
- Bantamweight Bout - Adele Fornarino vs Jasmine Rocha
- Light Heavyweight Bout - Roberto Jimenez vs Ryan Aitken
- Lightweight Bout - Gianni Grippo vs Owen Jones
- Middleweight Bout - Luccas Lira vs Sean Yadimarco
- Heavyweight Bout - Roosevelt Sousa vs Igor Tanabe
- Welterweight Bout - Michael Sainz vs Natan Chueng
- Undercard Middleweight Bout - Jake O'Driscoll vs. JZ Cavalcante
- Undercard Heavyweight Bout - Joselyn Molina vs Amy Grande
- Undercard Middleweight Bout - Linus von Schrenk vs Andre Porfirio
- Undercard Lightweight Bout - Matias Jimenez vs Tristan Sainz
Watch More BJJ On FloGrappling
FloGrappling is the streaming home to the best Brazilian jiu-jitsu events and news coverage.
FloGrappling is the streaming home of:
Join The BJJ Conversation By Following FloGrappling On Social
- Follow us on Twitter @flograppling
- Follow us on Instagram @flograppling
- Watch us on YouTube