We'll be learning how each of the 104 athletes will be seeded across the five male and three female weight classes in less than an hour; but it's fun to speculate.

-66kg

• Diego Pato is the most decorated ADCC competitor among the group with a bronze medal in 2022 and a silver medal in 2024. He's the obvious no.1 seed for me.
• Kennedy Maciel took second at ADCC in his debut way back in 2019. In both 2022 and 2024 he went 1-1. If his result from seven years ago still carries bracketing weight, he may hold his position as the no.2 seed. But I'm not so sure the value of that medal will hold up (in a bracketing sense, at least). Regardless, I have him as a top-six seed.
• You could make a case for Owen Jones as the no.3 seed. He has the highest finishing position of any of the remaining athletes in the bracket, taking fourth place in 2024 after losing to Pato in the semis.
• If you take away Maciel's 2019 breakout performance, he and Fabricio Andrey have an almost identical ADCC record. Both men have won the South American Trials in dominant fashion; and both have gone 1-1 in each of the last two editions of the World Championships. I'd make the case that that puts Andrey within two seeds of Maciel, wherever he falls.
• It's unclear from this point if — and how — veteran status will trump trials performances in seeding considerations. The rest of the division's returning veterans are: Dorian Olivarez, Gianni Grippo, Kauã Gabriel.

-77kg

• I'd consider Vagner Rocha as clear cut of a no.1 seed as exists in any division in this tournament. No, he's never won gold. But the six-time ADCC veteran has appeared on the podium four times in two different weight divisions. He won a silver medal in 2024 at -77kg, a silver seven years prior in the same weight class, and bronzes from 2017 and 2022 in the -77kg and -88kg divisions, respectively.
• While the no.1 seed in this division appears a no-brainer, predicting the no.2 through no.6 becomes a complete guessing game. Is it Dante Leon, who took fourth in 2019, bronze in 2022, and then lost in the first round of -77kg in 2024? It could well be, as Leon vindicated himself in 2024 with a bronze medal run in the absolute. In that run, he sniped the newly-crowned -77kg champ with a foot lock and also knocked off the reigning two-time -88kg champ by decision.
• Supposing Dante gets the no.2, we slip into dice roll territory quickly. My guess:
  • No.3: PJ Barch
  • No.4: Elijah Dorsey
  • No.5: Mateusz Szczeciński
  • No.6: Magomed Dhzarbaev or Jacob Bornemann (Personally, I hope these two are the eight and nine seeds. This matchup has first round fireworks written all over it.)

-88kg

• Where do we start in this division? Does the no.1 seed go to the 2019 champ at -88kg, Matheus Diniz, or someone with more recent success? 2024 semifinalists returning to this division include bronze medalist Felipe Costa and fourth place winner Chris Wojcik. It's the most we have to go on for the top three seeds here.
• My prediction for seeds four through six, in no specific order:
  • Pawel Jaworski, Jon Blank, Santeri Lillius

-99kg

• Finally! A clear-cut no.1: returning (four-time) champion Kaynan Duarte.
• You probably have to go with Roberto Cyborg as the no.2. He's got seven podiums at ADCC since 2009, including an absolute title in 2013. He took second in the absolute in 2024 and third in his weight class in the same year.
• The only person who might have claim to Cyborg's spot as the no.2, and will be the obvious no.2 or no.3 seed, is Luke Griffith, who took second place at +99kg in 2024.
• Four through six (again, no specifc order)
  • Declan Moody, Eoghan O'Flanaghan, Patrick Gaudio

+99kg

• Fortunately, another clear cut no.1 in the heaviest weight category: returning champion and one-time absolute champ Felipe Pena.
• I'll take Big Dan Manasoiu as the no.2 off his third place finish in this weight category in 2024, and Josh Saunders as the no.3 for his fourth place finish in the same category in the same year.
• My gut says the four through six seeds are (in this order):
  • Victor Hugo, Roosevelt Sousa, Brandon Reed

Women's -55kg

• I'm feeling brave; I'm going to predict the whole bracket here:
  • #1 Jasmine Rocha vs #8 Kanae Ikeda
  • #4 Sheliah Lindsey  vs #5 Janette Gloger
  • #2 Ana Rodrigues vs #7 Valerie Hamilton
  • #3 Mayssa Bastos vs #6 Ana Mayordomo

Women's -65kg

• Again, these are predictions:
  • #1 Ana Carolina Vieira vs #8 Ane Svendsen
  • #4 Nadia Frankland vs #5 Livia Barasine
  • #2 Sarah Galvão vs #7 Injana Goodman
  • #3 Mo Black vs #6 Joslyn Molina

Women's +65kg

• Last predictions:
  • #1 Helena Crevar vs #8 Nia Blackman
  • #4 Paige Ivette Clymer vs #5 Yara Soares
  • #2 Gabi Pessanha vs #7 Matilda Reid
  • #3 Elizabeth Mitrovic vs #6 Anabel Lopez