A look at the data shows that American grapplers perform well at IBJJF Pans, but this year's tournament offers no guarantees they will enjoy success.

American grapplers were more successful in 2018, winning more gold medals at Pans than at any other major tournament. 

Much has been said about the rise of jiu-jitsu in the United States. While most observers agree that it will be some years before Brazil’s dominance is under real threat, various nations are slowly chipping away at the hegemony of the South American powerhouse. The USA are leading the charge, winning more medals than any other country except Brazil. 

One such tournament where we see a wide representation of international medalists is the IBJJF Pan Jiu-Jitsu Championship. The 2019 edition takes place on March 21-24, and if the numbers are anything to go by then we may see more American champions crowned. 

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One way of judging the success of non-Brazilian medalists is to compare the male black belt results from Pans with Worlds, that other great tournament. Both are based in Southern California, and both attract talent from around the world. 

Pans 2018: Four Finals Featuring Americans 

Last year saw an unprecedented five finals that featured non-Brazilians, with three of those finals containing no Brazilians at all. 

The roosterweight division was decided between Japanese black belts Tomoyuki Hashimoto and Koji Shibamoto. Gianni Grippo and Shane Jamil Hill-Taylor faced off for the featherweight gold, while JT Torres and Michael Liera Jr. closed out the lightweight division. Keenan Cornelius beat Mahamed Aly for gold at super-heavyweight, while Tanner Rice narrowly lost to heavyweight champion Leandro Lo. 

Compare that with Worlds, where only three finals featured a non-Brazilian and there was a Brazilian in every one of the 10 finals. 

The U.S. took a far larger share of the 40 available male black belt medals at Pans than Worlds, with a total medal count of 12 at Pans (3 gold, 3 silver, 6 bronze) compared to only three at Worlds (2 gold, 1 bronze). 

The Weights Where Americans Performed Strongest – and the Weakest

Three divisions at Pans contained two or more American medalists: featherweight (2), lightweight (2), and super-heavyweight (3). 

Keenan Cornelius was the super-heavyweight champion in 2018, with Jared Dopp and Tim Spriggs both taking bronze. 

At featherweight Gianni Grippo and Shane Jamil Hill-Taylor took gold and silver respectively, while teammates JT Torres and Michael Liera Jr. closed out lightweight. 

For all their success, American medalists failed to hit the podium in two weight divisions: middleweight and medium-heavyweight. The two weight classes were dominated by Brazilians, who took every medal available. 

Brazilians won far more medals overall at Worlds, and while Americans only managed a total of three medals it is important to note that there was a non-Brazilian on seven of the 10 podiums. 

Pans 2019: What Can We Expect? 

Truthfully speaking, there is no guarantee that American black belts will perform as well this year as they did in 2018. The absence of big names such as last year's champions Grippo, Torres and Cornelius eliminate three of the strongest medal hopes. 

Among this year's entrants only a few names stand out as medal hopefuls, with fewer still champion material. 

Stay tuned for future articles as we zero in on the divisions to watch where we could see non-Brazilians take gold.