The lightweight division at IBJJF Worlds is shaping up to be some sort of berimbolo fueled battle royale, with about a dozen legit contenders to fill the spot left vacant when Lucas Lepri did not register to defend his title. After thousands of hours of research and some intense calculations in my BJJ algorithm super computer I have it all figured out. I've done it, I know exactly who will win each weight and how. 

I've already previewed the roosterweight and ultra-heavyweight divisions, now let's find out who is going to win lightweight:

OSS!

No Lepri In 2021, Who Takes It?

Here are the seeds in the lightweight division, obviously the bracket doesn't quite reflect this as some people have to be changed around to be on opposite sides of the bracket - 

1: Matheus Gabriel (Checkmat)

2: Johnatha Alves (Art of Jiu Jitsu)

3: Levi Jones-Leary (Unity)

4: Lucas Valente (Gracie Barra)

5: Renato Canuto (Checkmat)

6: Marcio Andre (Nova Uniao)

7: Rodrigo Freitas (Rodrigo Freitas BJJ)

8: Michael Liera (Atos)

9: Espen Mathiesen (Nova Uniao)

10: Hugo Marques (617 BJJ)

11: Pablo Lavaselli (Renzo Gracie Orlando)

12: Johnny Tama (Alliance)

13: Leon Larman (Brasa CTA France)

14: Leonardo Silva (GF Team)

15: Guilherme Rocha (ZR Team)

16: Kevin Mahecha (Winners Training Center)

17: Fabricio Barbarotti (PSPLB Cicero Costha)

18: Daniel Aquino (Checkmat International)

19: Murilo Amaral (Alliance)

20: Adriano Araujo (Carlson Gracie)

21: Wellington Dias (Gracie Humaita)

22: Andy Murasaki (Atos)

23: Jonas Campos (Atos JJ International)

24: AJ Agazarm (Gracie Barra)

Number One Seed Matheus Gabriel

In 2019, Matheus Gabriel won the fetaherweight division at Worlds in dramatic fashion, submitting Marcio Andre in the final. Two years later and he has moved up a weight class, and with the number one seed has by far the easiest route to the semis of the big names. First he gets the winner of Mahecha/Megaton, followed by the winner of Tama/Liera most likely.

Compare this to his teammate and five seed Renato Canuto, who will most likely need to weather a thirty minute long berimbolo storm between Espen/Levi/Alves in a row just to make the final. 

Best Round of 16 Match: The real answer here is either Johnatha Alves vs Andy Murasaki or Renato Canuto vs Espen Mathiesen, but my personal answer is Levi Jones-Leary vs AJ Agazarm. Anything is possible when the Xanadu God meets the Florida Boy, and this is my personal main event for the tournament.

Best Potential Quarterfinal: So I have the quarters looking like this -

Matheus Gabriel vs Johnny Tama

Lucas Valente vs Marcio Andre

Johnatha Alves vs Rodrigo Freitas

Levi Jones-Leary vs Espen Mathiesen

Of these four matches, Levi vs Espen is by far my favorite. I have Espen taking this one by one advantage after being the first person to come up in double pull.

Semifinals:

Matheus Gabriel vs Lucas Valente

Johnatha Alves vs Espen Mathiesen

I've gotta go with the one and two seeds advancing to the finals here, setting up Matheus Gabriel vs Johnatha Alves in the final.

And your winner is...

Johnatha Alves

Or maybe not. Maybe he loses to Andy Murasaki on Saturday morning. This division is kind of wild, I could see Matheus, Valente, Alves, Murasaki, Levi, Canuto, Marcio or Espen taking it to be honest. Maybe AJ taps everyone who knows. But if I had to bet money going in, I'd take Alves with the slight edge over Matheus to be the 2021 IBJJF Worlds lightweight champ. God bless you.

Podium: 

1 Johnatha Alves

2 Matheus Gabriel

3 Lucas Valente

3 Espen Mathiesen

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